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п»їMonday Night Football Picks Week 16: Bills vs Patriots.
Before we get into breaking down the upcoming Buffalo/New England game on Monday night, I need to talk about what it’s like as a handicapper to put your research and methods in motion and to come up with a wager that you believe is going to cash for you. I wrote 900 words last week on why and how the Steelers are going to bounce-back against the Bengals and throttle them. I went through my usual methods and believed that the Steelers, despite laying almost two-touchdowns on the road to a division rival, were the right play.
The only thing I didn’t take into consideration when recommending the Steelers was my own eyes. I urge all handicappers and bettors to trust what you see. With the amount of data and stats and trends available to us in the year 2020, we can skew the numbers any which way to fit our narrative and bias. Trusting our eyes and what we actually see should allow us to see things without any bias. The Steelers, losers of two-straight, with an offense that can’t run the football or throw the ball more than 10 yards down field, should not have been trusted, even against a terrible Bengals team. I talked myself into how and why the Steelers need to win this game for morale, but I missed the fact that my own eyes saw a struggling team with little help on the way. In this handicapping business, we learn from our mistakes and we try not to make them again.
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Moving on to this week, it’s the final Monday Night Football game, and it features an AFC East matchup between the division-winning Bills and the Patriots, who are set to miss the playoffs for the first time since 2008.
Bills vs Patriots Betting Story Lines.
The Buffalo Bills showed up in a major way last week against the Broncos and took care of business by thrashing the Broncos and clinching the AFC East for the first time in 25 years. This game should be a letdown game for the team, and it would be if they were playing an opponent not named New England. The Bills have already beaten the Patriots once this year and would love nothing more than to rub salt in the wounds of Pats Nation after years of suffering courtesy of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. Not to mention, the Pats are going to miss the playoffs for the first time since 2008, so there is no better time for the Bills to try and get some payback. As a team, the Bills have been humming on offense to the tune of 33 points per game over their last four games (all wins). The defense has stepped up in a big way during that span, giving up more than 20 points just once. The Bills defense should have no issues containing a terrible Patriots offense that’s among the worst in the league in every major category.
As for the Patriots, their season has been an unmitigated disaster by their lofty standards, but nobody should be surprised as Belichick set the expectations low in September following a bunch of opt-outs due to COVID. Nonetheless, there was a little bit of optimism surrounding what Cam Newton brings to the table, and he’s failed badly. The Patriots rank 24th in yards per game, 30th in passing yards per game and 27th in points per game. Newton has been an ok runner of the ball, but nothing more. It also doesn’t help that the Patriots receiving corps is among the worst units in the league. It’s going to be a while before the Patriots will be an elite team once again.
Bills at Patriots Betting Odds and Trends.
Bills at Patriots Football Betting Predictions.
This is a lot of points to be laying on the road with a prime-time road favorite. However, given the circumstances, I’d be dumb not to go with the better team here. The Bills have been playing lights out football on both sides of the ball. The fact they won the division last week doesn’t deter me as they’ve got bigger goals for this regular season, and that’s staying ahead of Pittsburgh for the No. 2 seed and securing a better playoff matchup. The Patriots are just playing out the final two regular-season games with little motivation, and two losses to end the year would only help their draft selection for the upcoming season.
Play: Bills -7.
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Monday Night Football odds, line: Patriots vs. Jets picks, predictions from NFL expert on 15-6 roll.
The New England Patriots will try to extend their dominance in the series with the New York Jets when the two AFC East rivals meet on Monday Night Football at MetLife Stadium. The Patriots (2-5) have won the last eight games in the series by an average of 21 points. Only two of those eight games have been decided by fewer than 14 points. Meanwhile, the Jets (0-8) are the only winless team remaining.
В© Provided by CBS Sports.
Sep 9, 2018; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots fans hold signs as they take on the Houston Texans in the second half at Gillette Stadium. The Patriots defeated the Texans 27-20.
Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. William Hill Sportsbook pegs New England as a 10-point favorite in the latest Patriots vs. Jets odds, while the over-under for total points scored is 42.5. Before making any Jets vs. Patriots picks, be sure to see the latest Monday Night Football predictions from SportsLine's resident Patriots expert, Stephen Oh.
The renowned co-founder of Accuscore, Oh simulates each game 10,000 times using the SportsLine Projection Model. Since the start of the 2018 season, he has nailed 44 of his 65 NFL picks against the spread, an incredible 68 percent success rate.
Oh is uncanny when it comes to the Patriots. In fact, all-time, he is 15-6 on against the spread picks in games involving New England. Anyone who has followed him is way up.
Now, he has studied Patriots vs. Jets from every angle and released another confident against-the-spread pick. You can only see it here. Here are the NFL odds and betting trends for Jets vs. Patriots:
Why the Patriots can cover.
Running back Damien Harris has emerged as the team's top back. Elevated to lead running back after Sony Michel's injury, the second-year runner from Alabama has two 100-yard rushing games in four starts.
Last week against Buffalo, Harris ran for 102 yards on 16 rushes (6.4 yards per carry) and scored his first career touchdown.
In addition, New England will face a punch-less Jets offense. New York is averaging 259.0 total yards, 155.9 passing yards, and 11.8 points per game. All three rank last in the NFL by a significant margin.
Why the Jets can cover.
Teams have been effective running the ball against New England. The Patriots are allowing opponents to average 4.6 yards per carry and 140.4 rushing yards per game, which is sixth-worst in the league. That is good news for a Jets offense that is around league average in running the ball at 4.25 yards per carry.
In addition, New York's defense has held its own against the run. The Jets are allowing just 4.1 yards per rush and 116.1 rushing yards per game, which ranks 13th in the league. Last week, they limited Kansas City to just 50 rushing yards on 20 carries.
How to make Patriots vs. Jets picks.
Now, Oh has broken down Patriots vs. Jets from every angle. He's leaning under on the total, but his much stronger play is on the spread. He's found a critical x-factor that makes one side of the spread hit hard on Monday Night Football. He's only sharing it here.
Who wins Jets vs. Patriots on Monday Night Football? And what critical X-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Jets vs. Patriots spread you should jump on, all from the expert who's 15-6 on picks involving New England, and find out.


Monday Night Football Betting Preview: Odds, trends, picks for Seahawks-Eagles.
The Seahawks (7-3) travel cross-country to Lincoln Financial Field to face the Eagles (3-6-1) in the penultimate Week 12 battle. An important contest for the playoff positioning of both NFC franchises, this game pits two squads at or near the best health reports of their respective 2020 NFL seasons. The Seahawks are -6.5 road favorites (-305 ML), and the over/under sits at 49 total points as of Monday morning.
Seahawks-Eagles Betting Preview.
Seahawks Outlook.
A month and a half ago, the Seahawks looked downright untouchable. They started the 2020 NFL season 5-0, and averaged a robust 34.25 points through the first half of their schedule. Quarterback Russell Wilson looked like the unanimous choice to win his first MVP award, and his top play-makers served as beacons of offensive consistency. However, a 37-34 overtime loss to the division-rival Cardinals in Week 7 shook Seattle to its core, and injuries began to mount. After a turbulent start to the second half of its season, many pundits questioned if even the most heroic version of Wilson could survive the struggling Seahawks defense.
A strong 28-21 win over Arizona in a rematch at home last week went a long way toward answering that question. The Cardinals had been playing superb offense to that point in the season, with second-year standout QB Kyler Murray looking like an MVP candidate in his own right. But the Seahawks defense showed up, and Wilson and company once again balled out. The QB completed 23-of-28 passes, with one touchdown strike going to each of his two favorite wide receivers, DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.
Metcalf, who caught three passes for 46 yards in last week’s win, has emerged as the most physically dominant receiver in the game. He ranks third in the NFL with 18 yards per catch and fourth in the NFC with 86.2 yards per game. Lockett, who caught nine targets for 67 yards, ranks third in the conference with 6.7 catches per game. This dynamic tandem has been a huge reason for Wilson’s electrifying stat line this season, which includes a 73.5-percent completion rate (second in the NFL), 298.6 passing yards per game (fourth), and 8.2 average yards per completion (fifth). If Wilson throws for three or more TDs tonight, which he has done six different times this season, he will at least tie Aaron Rodgers with an NFL-leading 33 TDs (he’s currently tied for second with Patrick Mahomes at 30.
But things haven’t been all sunshine and roses for Wilson since Seattle’s heartbreaking overtime loss to Arizona in Week 7. After throwing just three interceptions in the Seahawks’ first five games, he has seven picks across their past five. He has been sacked 14 times in their past three contests, and he has not eclipsed 261 passing yards in three of their last four. Wilson and Seattle coach Pete Carroll are likely ecstatic to have starting running back Chris Carson back tonight, after a foot injury sustained in that infamous Week 7 matchup kept the fourth-year back sidelined the past four games. In the six games he has played this season, Carson averages a team-best 4.9 yards per carry. He has caught 22-of-25 targets (88 percent), and he’s scored three times on the ground and three times through the air. His backup Carlos Hyde is good, but not as effective as Carson.
Seattle’s success has been mainly attributed to its offense this season, but last week may have been the first time all year that its defense got them the win. Sure, it helped that they committed no offensive turnovers all game, but they also held a high-flying Cardinals offense to a season-low 314 total yards (257 passing, 57 rushing). They got to Murray three times (tied for Arizona’s season high in sacks allowed), and held them to 21 points (tied for the Cards’ season-low).
That’s a breakthrough for the team ranked dead last in total yards allowed, passing yards allowed, and first downs surrendered. Former All-Pro and first-year Seahawks safety Jamal Adams finally seems to have his bearings in Ken Norton’s oft-criticized system, and defensive end Carlos Dunlap has been huge in the pass-rush as of late. Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright remain one of the better linebacker tandems in the league, with Wagner once again flirting with the league lead in combined tackles with 96. If Seattle’s secondary can perform like it did last week, this Seahawks team could be a Super Bowl contender after all.
Eagles Outlook.
Whereas the Seahawks started the 2020 NFL season as a beacon of offensive consistency, the Eagles started as a comedy of errors and misfortunes. They opened the season losing to a divisional rival, the Dwayne Haskins-led Washington Football Team. Then they got destroyed by the Rams at home 37-19 and tied the Bengals in a game neither team looked terribly interested in winning.
Eight weeks and three wins later, that tie could be the reason Philadelphia somehow prevails in the historically bad NFC East. Going into tonight’s contest, the Eagles have one fewer win than the Giants and Washington, but they also have one fewer loss thanks to the stalemate. Thus, if Philly pulls off the upset this evening, the Eagles sit in first place in a division that very well could send a six-win team to the playoffs.
At this rate, the Eagles have as good a chance as any of the four teams in the NFC Least. They have a better offense than the Giants and Washington when QB Carson Wentz stays focused and executes. And unlike the Cowboys, they look to finally be returning to relative health for the first time all season. If a run is going to happen with Wentz and coach Doug Pederson, it likely has to be now or never.
Wentz, one time considered the future of the franchise, currently leads the NFL with 14 interceptions (three more than any other QB). He also has the second-worst completion percentage (58.4) among starting QBs and the third-worst QB rating (73.3). He has been sacked 40 times, seven more times than the next-most sacked QB (who happens to be his counterpart this evening, Wilson).
So, that’s bad. And even worse, Philly has dropped its past two games to the Giants and the Browns while scoring just 17 points in each game. The Eagles have only passed for 167.3 yards in their past three games. But let’s look at the bright side, as there are many reasons for Eagles fans to be optimistic.
Thanks in large part to its strong defensive line, the Eagles defense has improved drastically since the beginning of the season, only giving up 177.6 passing yards over Philly’s past five games. Defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz’s squad actually serves as the seventh-best third-down defense and sixth-best fourth-down defense. They have surrendered the third-fewest passing TDs, the sixth-fewest passing yards, and the 10th-fewest points.
Running back Miles Sanders, who missed two games toward the halfway mark of the season with a knee injury, returned two weeks ago and has been making plays all over the field. Tight end Dallas Goedert, one of Wentz’s favorite targets the past two years, returned from the IR a few weeks ago after recovering from a tibia fracture and high-ankle sprain. Goedert caught five passes for 77 yards and a score in Philly’s loss in Cleveland last week.
Also cause for optimism has been Philly’s youthful offensive weapons. Wide receiver Travis Fulgham emerged as a huge playmaker earlier in the season, and he leads the team with 65.5 receiving yards per game and four touchdowns. Fellow receiver Greg Ward, who has caught 72.7 percent of his targets and scored three times, has also filled in nicely. This 25-year-old tandem had to be thrust into starting roles with the continued absences of veterans DeSean Jackson (ankle) and Alshon Jeffery (calf). Richard Rodgers has similarly benefited from the misfortunes of others, as the tight end hauled in some big catches with Goedert and Ertz sidelined. And backup RB Boston Scott has made tremendous impacts when Sanders isn’t on the field.
Still, this is a JV squad compared to Seattle’s high-flying offense. Wentz makes far too many mistakes, and his offensive line lets him down far too frequently. Not to mention, the Eagles have only three wins despite playing a schedule featuring only four teams with winning records. If you subtract the loss to the run-heavy Browns in nasty Cleveland weather last week, Philly has allowed 35 points per game to teams currently in playoff spots (LA Rams, Pittsburgh, Baltimore). This Seahawks offense is better than any offense the Eagles have faced all season, so Schwartz better have his guys ready or else things could get out of hand early.
Prediction.
Unless you’re a die-hard Eagles fan, you probably don’t have the intestinal fortitude to roll with the Eagles plus-230 on the moneyline. But we can find plenty of value with Philly plus-6.5. In fact, the BetQL Best Bet Model puts a four-star rating on the Eagles against the spread, projecting them to lose by more like five points. The Model also puts two stars on the Eagles covering plus-3.5 at the half, and another two stars on the UNDER (24) hitting at the half. It also puts one star on the OVER for the full game (49). However, the Model agrees that the Seahawks should emerge as the moneyline winner at the half (-195, three stars) and the end of the game (-305, one star).
There’s not a ton of value to be had at -305, so consider rolling with the home team against the spread, maybe even buying a point for added confidence. Looking back at the upset-heavy slate of Monday Night Football games this season, it would not be surprising if Philadelphia at least kept this one to within a touchdown. Seattle wins its sixth straight matchup with Philly, 30-24.
You can find all upd ated lines, odds, spreads, and NFL picks at BetQL!


Monday Night Football odds, line: Vikings vs. Bears picks, predictions from NFL expert on 35-12 roll.
R.J. White has his finger on the pulse of Dalvin Cook and the Minnesota Vikings.
With his team's offense struggling, Chicago Bears coach Matt Nagy has turned over play-calling duties to offensive coordinator Bill Lazor beginning with the Bears' Monday Night Football game against the rival Minnesota Vikings at Soldier Field. Since he took over as coach before the 2018 season, Nagy had been the Bears' lone offensive play-caller, but so far this season the Bears (5-4) rank 29th in total offense (317.8 yards per game) and scoring offense (19.8 points per game).
Kickoff for Bears vs. Vikings is se t for 8:15 p.m. ET. Minnesota is a 3.5-point favorite in the latest Vikings vs. Bears odds from William Hill Sportsbook, while the over-under for total points scored is 44. Before making any Bears vs. Vikings picks, be sure to see the latest Monday Night Football predictions from SportsLine's resident Minnesota expert, R.J. White.
CBS Sports' NFL editor, White enters Week 10 on a sizzling 31-21 run on his NFL picks. It's no surprise, as White twice has cashed huge in the world's most prestigious football handicapping competition, the Las Vegas SuperContest.
White has a particularly keen eye for the Vikings. In fact, he is an astounding 35-12 in his last 47 spread picks in games involving Minnesota. Anyone who has followed White is way up.
Now, he has studied Vikings vs. Bears from every angle and released another confident against-the-spread pick. You can only see it here. Here are the NFL odds and betting trends for Bears vs. Vikings:
Why the Vikings can cover.
Running back Dalvin Cook is on a roll. In the past two weeks, he has racked up 478 scrimmage yards and six touchdowns and earned back-to-back NFC Offensive Player of the Week honors. His 369 rushing yards over the past two weeks are the most in a two-game stretch by a player in franchise history.
In addition, receiver Justin Jefferson has emerged as a premier deep threat as a rookie. He ranks second in the NFL in yards per reception (18.4). He also leads all rookies in yards per catch and receiving yards (627).
Why the Bears can cover.
If history is any indication, Minnesota quarterback Kirk Cousins will struggle on Monday. The Vikings' signal-caller is 0-9 as a starter on Monday Night Football, with his team losing by an average of 11.0 points. He also is 0-3 in his last three starts against the Bears, averaging just 209.0 passing yards and with a passer rating of 82.0.
In addition, Chicago's pass defense has been strong this season. The Bears are allowing a passer rating of 84.0, which ranks fourth in the NFL. They also allow 218.2 passing yards per game, which is eighth.
Last week, the Bears gave up just 158 passing yards to Tennessee's Ryan Tannehill and had three sacks and six quarterback hits.
How to make Vikings vs. Bears picks.
Now, White has broken down Bears vs. Vikings from every angle. He's leaning under on the total, but his much stronger play is on the spread. He's found a critical x-factor that makes one side of the spread hit hard on Monday Night Football. He's only sharing it here.
Who wins Bears vs. Vikings on Monday Night Football? And what critical X-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Vikings vs. Bears spread you should jump on, all from the expert who's 35-12 on picks involving Minnesota, and find out.


Monday Night Football: Bills vs. Patriots Prediction, Odds & Picks.
Created 1 month ago, Last Updated 1 month ago.
The Bills have already wrapped up the AFC East Championship, but a sweep is on their mind ahead of their Monday Night Football matchup against the New England Patriots.
It’s a feat the Bills haven’t accomplished since 1999, as the Patriots reigned over the AFC East for much of the last two decades, while the Buffalo Bills were often bottom feeders. This year is different, though. The Bills punched their ticket to the playoffs with their fourth straight victory last week, winning their first division title since 1995.
The division race might be over, but the Bills still have a No. 2 seed to play for — as if the opportunity to sweep the Patriots wasn’t enough motivation.
Monday Night Football Odds.
There’s no surprise when it comes to the point spread Monday night, as online sportsbooks favor the Bills by 7 points. The spread opened Bills -6.5 at the beginning of Week 16, but oddsmakers quickly adjusted a half-point. As of Monday morning, 78% of spread money is behind the Bills, and 81% of Over/Under action is on Under 46.5 points, according to our friends at Scores and Odds.
The Bills got the best of the Patriots in their first meeting, but only barely. As he so often does with young quarterbacks, Belichick disrupted Josh Allen, holding him to 154 yards, 0 touchdowns, and one interception on 11-of-18 passing.
To Run or Pass?
Curiously, the Bills didn’t allow Allen to sling the football in his first meeting with the Patriots the way they have against most teams in 2020. His 18 attempts were by far the fewest all season, as Sean McDermott turned to the run for 38-of-56 of the Bills’ offensive plays. They got the W, nonetheless, so it’s tough to say whether running the ball was the reason they won the game or if running it too much was the reason why the game was so close in the first place. Remember, the Bills entered Week 16 ranking 2nd in passing yards but only 21st in rushing yards.
The Patriots have consistently been one of the worst run defenses in the league this season, most recently putting their weakness on display in Week 15 as they allowed the Dolphins to rack up 250 yards on the ground. Considering the Patriots defense has allowed the second-highest rush success rate, it won’t be shocking to see both Zack Moss and Devin Singletary get their fair share of work tonight.
Stidham’s Time?
Another open question heading into Monday Night Football is whether the Patriots will see what they have in another Auburn quarterback product, Jarrett Stidham. Doing makes plenty of sense:
Newton is on a one-year deal. The Patriots offense hasn’t found paydirt in two weeks. Belichick used a 2019 fourth-round pick on Stidham.
Belichick was typically vague when asked about his quarterbacks earlier this week, telling reporters, “we’ll see.” Stidham hasn’t been on the field much, throwing three interceptions on merely 33 pass attempts this season. Still, there’s no harm in seeing a bit more of him, and I fully expect Belichick to take the opportunity to do so over the next couple of weeks. However, it looks as if Newton will get the start against the Bills, but uncertainty regarding the quarterback situation in New England remains.
Bills vs. Patriots Prediction.
Public bettors are flocking towards the Bills, and understandably so. The Patriots technically having nothing to play for, and the fact that the Bills seek their fifth straight victory and have won seven of their last eight games do not make betting on the Patriots an easy endeavor.
However, if there’s any coaching staff that will prepare for this week just as they would any other, I suspect it would be Belichick’s. Though much of home-field advantage has been nullified in 2020, I won’t be laying seven points at Foxborough. My lean is with the Bills, but admittedly, my arm may need a twist or two before I lock in my bet.
For the time being, I’m betting Under 46.5 points. As I pointed out earlier in this article, it would be no surprise if the Bills attack the Patriots with a heavy dose of running plays, just as they did in their first meeting. Only the Jets and Giants average fewer touchdowns per game this season than the Patriots (1.9); so, whether it’s Newton and Stidham behind center, I’m not particularly scared of New England’s offense.
Monday Night Football Pick: Under 46.5.
Bills-Patriots Player Props.
Josh Allen Under 36.5 Pass Attempts (-125) – Allen will have to throw twice as many passes tonight as he did in his first game against the Patriots for this to go Over. If McDermott’s offensive game plan is similar to what it was the first go-around, then Under 36.5 pass attempts should be a good bet.
Cam Newton Under 25.5 Pass Attempts (-115) – I think we see Stidham in this game, and even if not, Newton averages just under 25.5 attempts per game and the Bills have been vulnerable against the run. All of these factors considered, Under is the right side.
Image Credit: Imagn.
About the Author.
Matt Schmitto (schmitto)
Matt Schmitto is the sports betting editor for RotoGrinders. He grew up in Texas, graduating from Texas Tech University. After a short stint in law school, Schmitto joined RotoGrinders as a staff writer in 2019 and is a contributor to Sports Handle and other US Bets network of sites.




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